Austin, 2012: the year “let’s wait and see” got expensive
Everyone in Austin knows someone who almost bought in 2012. Some of them are you.
In 2012 Austin was already “getting expensive.” That was the argument for waiting. The FHFA all-transactions index says a $300,000 house from that year is worth about $772,589 now.
The house price is only part of the regret. The larger part is leverage. A 20% down payment was $60,000; amortize the 3.66% thirty-year loan you didn’t take, subtract the balance you’d still owe, and the equity comes to about $613,040, roughly 10.2× the down payment. The S&P 500 had a great decade too. It did not do that on a $60,000 stake.
These figures leave out property taxes, insurance and maintenance, and you might have sold in 2016 anyway. The methodology lists the other costs the calculator does not model.
Run the 2012 Austin numbers yourself
House figures are estimates for the whole metro market, from the FHFA index. Not financial advice.